To further protect the U.S. livestock industry from the threat posed by highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza, USDA has announced that it is taking specific actions with its federal partners to limit the disease’s spread.

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced a Federal Order requiring the following measures, effective Monday, April 29, 2024:

Mandatory Testing for Interstate Movement of Dairy Cattle

• Prior to interstate movement, dairy cattle are required to receive a negative test for Influenza A virus at an approved National Animal Health Laboratory Network laboratory.
• Owners of herds in which dairy cattle test positive for interstate movement will be required to provide epidemiological information, including animal movement tracing.
• Dairy cattle moving interstate must adhere to conditions specified by APHIS.
• As will be described in forthcoming guidance, these steps will be immediately required for lactating dairy cattle, while these requirements for other classes of dairy cattle will be based on scientific factors concerning the virus and its evolving risk profile.

Mandatory Reporting

• Laboratories and state veterinarians must report positive Influenza A nucleic acid detection diagnostic results (e.g. PCR or genetic sequencing) in livestock to USDA APHIS.
• Laboratories and state veterinarians must report positive Influenza A serology diagnostic results in livestock to USDA APHIS.

USDA has identified spread between cows within the same herd, spread from cows to poultry, spread between dairies associated with cattle movements, and cows without clinical signs that have tested positive. On April 16, APHIS identified a shift in an H5N1 sample from a cow in Kansas that could indicate that the virus has an adaptation to mammals.

CDC conducted further analysis of the specimen sequence, which did not change their overall risk assessment for the general public, because the substitution has been seen previously in other mammalian infections and does not impact viral transmission. Additionally, the APHIS National Veterinary Services Laboratories found H5N1 in a lung tissue sample from an asymptomatic cull dairy cow that originated from an affected herd and did not enter the food supply.

The novel movement of H5N1 between wild birds and dairy cows requires further testing and time to develop a critical understanding to support any future courses of action, USDA said in a statement, adding that requiring positive test reporting will help the agency better under the disease and testing before interstate movement will limit its spread.

The agency has not found changes to the virus that would make it more transmissible to humans and between people and CDC believe that the current risk to the public remains low.

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A Texas dairy worker has tested positive for the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1, according to the CDC. The person inflicted has a mild case and is believed to be just the second human ever to have contracted the virus.

The news comes on the heels of USDA confirming detection of HPAI in seven dairy herds in Texas, two in Kansas, and one a piece in Idaho, Michigan, and New Mexico. The National Veterinary Services Laboratories is performing additional tests on presumptive positive results from Kansas, New Mexico, Ohio, and Texas.

“This infection does not change the H5N1 bird flu human health risk assessment for the U.S. general public, which CDC considers to be low,” USDA said in a statement.

Richard Webby, PhD, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds, and a virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, tells Food Quality & Safety that dairy herd infections are extremely rare. “There were some hints of data that suggested cows could be sporadically infected with influenza A viruses, but many, including me, never thought of cows as likely hosts of the virus,” he says. “No one knows how the cows got infected and how it is moving between them now. There were reports of sick birds on the initial farms, but how the virus got from there to cows is unclear. If we can understand how the virus is moving, we can likely do many things to reduce the risk.”

He notes that this virus remains very much a bird virus, even after replicating in cows. As such, the risk to humans is low. “It is of course higher in those with close contact with the sick animals,” Dr. Webby adds. “Risk to the general population is very low, rock to workers is low, but certainly not zero, as highlighted by the one conjunctivitis case.”

A joint statement released by the National Milk Producers Federation, the International Dairy Foods Association, the U.S. Dairy Export Council, and Dairy Management Inc., noted that routine testing and well-established protocols for U.S. dairy will continue to ensure that only safe milk enters the food supply. “In keeping with the federal Grade A Pasteurized Milk Ordinance (PMO), milk from sick cows must be collected separately and is not allowed to enter the food supply chain,” the statement reads. “This means affected dairy cows are segregated, as is normal practice with any animal health concern, and their milk does not enter the food supply.”

Since 2022, HPAI has been detected in wild, commercial, and hobbyist bird flocks in more than 82 million birds across 48 states and 512 counties, according to the CDC.

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USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) has started vaccine trials in poultry to combat highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), or bird flu. The agency is testing four bird flu vaccines—one from Zoetis, one from Merck Animal Health, and two developed by the agency itself—to be used in poultry after the CDC reports that more than 58 million birds have died or been depopulated in the current outbreak.

Initial data from an animal study with a single dose of the vaccine is expected to be available in May 2023, and researchers expect to have two-dose vaccine challenge study results in June 2023.

Should the trials be successful, the next step is to identify manufacturers interested in vaccine production. Once one or more manufacturers are identified, there are 20 discrete stages to complete before vaccine delivery. These stages begin with feasibility work by the manufacturer and culminates with product label submission and review. General timeframes are two-and-a-half to three years; however, in emergency situations manufacturers may expedite development.

From vaccine development to production timelines, to dissemination to flocks, there are many factors that make implementing a vaccine strategy a challenge, and it would take time to deliver effective bird flu vaccines. In a best-case scenario, USDA estimates an 18-to-24-month timeline before having a vaccine that matches the currently circulating virus strain, is available in commercial quantities, and can be easily administered to commercial poultry.

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It’s somehow fitting that we’ve been reduced to using riddles to explain why the cost of eggs is out of control.

Egg prices, like many grocery items, skyrocketed during the pandemic primarily due to supply chain issues, but remained a cost-effective protein source. While coronavirus cases have stabilized, egg prices have continued increasing to the point that many families have had to cut them out completely, losing access to a breakfast staple and a valuable non-meat source of protein.

According to U.S. Department of Labor statistics, the national average price for a dozen eggs hit $3.59 in November 2022 which is slightly more than double the $1.72 cost per dozen from a year earlier; however, year-over-year data doesn’t give the entire picture on the price of eggs.

Rather than using generic national averages for egg pricing, let’s look at a more complete history of egg prices in Florida, where it just so happens that I shop. Apparently, Floridians have some exclusive chickens living in some pricey neighborhoods providing our eggs. As the pandemic surged in the summer of 2021, a flat of eggs cost between $3.50 and $5.00. A flat contains 30 eggs, or 2.5 dozen, so that’s roughly $2.00 per dozen or 10 to16 cents per egg. These prices align with the national figures noted for 2021, so this is a good starting point. As 2021 transitioned into 2022 in Florida, a flat of eggs more than doubled in price, hitting a $7.00 to $8.00 per flat price range, or about $3.20 per dozen. Still affordable, but noteworthy to shoppers on a budget.

Moving into late 2022, eggs reached a jaw dropping $16.00 per flat in Florida, which is more than $6.40 per dozen, or in excess of 53 cents per egg in comparison with prior prices. Eventually, prices did come down some and, as of February 2023, the current price for a dozen eggs is $4.50, which is definitely better but still much higher than the national average of $3.46 per dozen. Admittedly, most of the data on Florida egg prices is anecdotal and could even be considered an isolated case, but these are real prices paid at a variety of national chain stores in the state over the period indicated.

Assuming the reality for most shoppers is likely somewhere in the range of the two data sets, that is still a massive price increase not fully explained by the pandemic or inflation. With inflation, groceries are up an average of 12%, which doesn’t come close to explaining the increase in egg prices. On a related issue, the price of chicken has not experienced these dramatic price increases, so that leaves us with a single burning question.

What on Earth Happened to All the Egg-Laying Chickens?

I recently came across an article that brought some levity to the egg situation while also shining a light on how the internet has chosen to explain the huge jump in egg prices. Social media users claim to have found a culprit for sky-high egg prices: The chicken feed did it.

Josh Kelety, a writer for the Associated Press, in a February 6, 2023 article (“Fact Focus: Egg Shortage Breeds Chicken-Feed Conspiracies”) wrote that social media users on Facebook, TikTok, and Twitter were reporting that their backyard hens had slowed down or stopped laying eggs. While this can be a common occurrence during the shorter days of winter, no one seemed to accept this train of thought as an explanation. Instead, social media users began speculating that common chicken feed products were the cause of the reduced production. Curious, I wondered whether they may be onto something that should be investigated by product testing to look for contamination; however, I soon remembered that this was social media, not a scientific journal, which meant that somebody was going to come up with a conspiracy theory instead of a scientific solution.

Kelety goes on to say that some users went further and suggested that feed producers had intentionally made their products deficient to stop backyard egg production, forcing people to buy eggs at inflated prices. The fact that commercial feed producers and egg producers are often vertically integrated entities doesn’t seem to affect their theory, as one Facebook user wrote in a post shared more than 2,000 times: “One of the largest egg producers in the country cut a deal with one of the largest feed producers in the country to change their feed formula so it no longer contains enough protein and minerals for your chickens to produce eggs. They are now price gouging eggs to make bank.”

Certainly, feed quality can affect hen egg-laying abilities; however, no widespread issues with feed or feed affecting egg production were reported in the article, and several major feed suppliers contacted by Kelety said they had not changed their formulas.

I did find a notice for a February 5, 2023 Purina prescription pet food recall due to elevated vitamin K levels in a dry dog food product. The symptoms of vitamin K toxicity in dogs are similar to some of the reports on social media; certainly, it’s at least possible backyard hens would eat dry dog food if accessible

There are other factors that can have a negative impact on egg production. For example, the amount of light chickens are exposed to can affect egg production—chickens are sensitive to lengthening daylight that triggers laying to increase. The amount of light laying hens receive is manipulated using artificial light, so those lights you see in chicken houses late at night are not there because the birds are insomniacs.

The group discussing egg prices on social media may have inadvertently identified a product that was eventually recalled, but instead chose to create a baseless theory to blame the feed guys. So, before another conspiracy theory is born, let’s look at the most likely cause for the painfully high egg prices.

Truth Versus Conspiracy

For several months, U.S. officials have been battling a bird flu outbreak that could break existing records. In December 2014, the National Wildlife Health Center detected HPAI viruses of Asian origin in wild waterfowl in the state of Washington. By the end of 2015, losses associated with this outbreak exceeded 50 million poultry, resulting in more than $3 billion dollars in economic impacts.

A map of confirmed detections in North America. Credit: U.S. Geological Survey

The wild migrating bird population is monitored year-round for the presence of strains of bird flu that could decimate domestic poultry flocks if not caught early. The virus spreads easily in bird populations through droppings or the nasal discharge of an infected bird, which can contaminate dust and soil and be carried onto farms on boots and clothing or on truck tires. If a single case is detected, any domestic flocks that could have potentially come into contact with an infected bird must be destroyed.

According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Protection, more than 58 million birds have died or were depopulated so far in the 2021-2023 ongoing outbreak. Of the total birds affected, nearly 43%, or almost 29 million of those lost, have been laying hens.

That’s a lot of chickens no longer laying eggs.

This is the most probable reason for the ongoing high cost of eggs, and prices should continue to fall as producers work to replace the birds lost in the outbreak.

Wester is the professional industry editor for Food Quality & Safety. Reach her at fqseditor@pawesta.com.

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The Nebraska Department of Agriculture, in conjunction with USDA’s Animal Plant Health Inspection Service, announced this week that more than 1.8 million chickens would need to be killed after bird flu, caused by the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain, was discovered on an egg-laying farm in Dixon County.

Roger Dudley, the department’s state veterinarian, noted in a statement that the affected flock will be depopulated and disposed of in an approved manner. Additionally, the department will establish a 6.2-mile control zone, as is USDA policy, around the affected premises.

Overall, Nebraska has seen 6.8 million birds on 13 farms impacted, second only to Iowa’s 15.5 million birds killed earlier this year. NDA is encouraging bird owners to prevent contact between their birds and wildlife and to practice strict biosecurity measures.

Additionally, the Oregon Department of Agriculture announced last week that bird flu was found in a non-commercial flock, resulting in a flock of 20 chickens being killed, and The Utah Department of Agriculture and Food has found HPAI in a flock of backyard chickens in Utah County and a flock of game birds in Iron County.

These are just the latest outbreaks of the disease, which has already been responsible for the slaughter of 52.3 million birds (both chickens and turkeys) in 46 states, according to USDA, which added that this is the worst toll on the poultry industry in seven years. That outbreak, in which more than 50 million birds were killed during 2014-2015, was driven by farm-to-farm transmission, while this current outbreak is being driven by wild birds.

According to the CDC, the public health risk associated with these avian influenza detections in birds remains low. The high number of birds killed offers little risk to U.S. consumers, as infected birds aren’t allowed to enter the nation’s food supply, and heating poultry and eggs to an internal temperature of 165 ˚F is recommended as a general food safety precaution.

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The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is taking immediate action to ensure a rapid response to a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the United States.

Tom Vilsack, USDA Agriculture Secretary, approved the transfer of approximately $263 million from the Commodity Credit Corporation to APHIS to directly support the response, which allows APHIS to continue the critical work with state and local partners to quickly identify and address cases of HPAI.

As of May 12, the virus has been confirmed in 29 states, impacting more than 33 million domestic birds, with the latest positive tests coming in Oregon, Washington, Vermont, Alaska, and Oklahoma. The virus was initially detected in a flock of pheasants earlier this year.

Agriculture and avian flu expert Chris Helm, executive vice president of global business at Longhorn Vaccines & Diagnostics, notes that USDA is expanding its surveillance of wild birds with the goal of preventing new cases from entering the poultry population, or at least tracking where new cases appear. This way, the agency can get ahead of any new cases and take action before it’s too late.

“Wild birds are the carriers of avian flu and carry it from farm to farm, which is why we’re seeing an uptick in avian flu among the U.S. poultry population,” he tells Food Quality & Safety. “If the USDA is able to track how the virus is spreading, they have the opportunity to get ahead of any new cases.”

This is critical, because the virus kills birds and often necessitates flocks be culled, which affects both the U.S. egg supply and the broilers and turkey supply. This could lead to inflation on these products or scarcity unless the virus is tamped down.

So, testing in both wild birds and chicken and turkey flocks is expanding, and remains a critical part of tracking the spread of the virus and preventing new cases. “Early detection can prevent spread, and we don’t want to see the virus jump from bird and poultry to humans, which we saw in the early 2000s,” Helm says.

“Highly pathogenic avian influenza is a serious concern for our nation’s poultry industry, and we need to continue our nationwide response to minimize the impact,” says Jenny Lester Moffitt, USDA’s undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs. “The agency’s actions during this ongoing emergency serve to safeguard U.S. poultry and egg producers and reduce the effects of avian influenza on agriculture and trade, while also enhancing readiness for other animal health emergencies.

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On February 14, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), or bird flu, in birds in two states—a flock of commercial broiler chickens in Fulton County, Ky., and a backyard flock (non-poultry) in Fauquier County, Va. In response, more than 100,000 birds have been culled in an effort to contain the spread.

“It’s definitely considered a period of high risk now that we have a confirmed case of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the commercial poultry industry,” Dr. Denise Heard, vice president of research for the U.S. Poultry & Egg Association, said in a statement. “I feel positive that we can tackle this situation better and I have my fingers crossed that this will be an isolated case; however, I would [say to] hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.”

Over the course of the following nine days, APHIS confirmed additional cases of the disease in Dubois County, Ind.; New Castle County, Del.; Webster County, Ken.; Suffolk County, N.Y.; and Knox County, Maine. Similarly, tens of thousands of turkeys and chickens have been culled to eliminate the virus.

Catie Beauchamp, PhD, a microbiologist and vice president of food science, quality, and safety at ButcherBox in Greeley, Colo., says that outbreaks of bird flu occur due to the migratory flight pattern of water fowl and that it has a cycle similar to the seasonal flu, with different strains and transmission rates that change from year to year. “Bird flu is primarily an animal health issue,” she says. “Infected animals do not enter the food supply, [and] therefore HPAI is not a food safety issue. The risk to human health is very low, as human-to-human transmission is very low. Poultry workers are the most at risk, but even then, the risk is still low.”

She noted that bird flu can’t be eradicated because it is a virus carried by wild, migrating birds.

The response, says Dr. Beauchamp, involves robust monitoring, testing, and transmission mitigation. “Biosecurity measures are already in place,” she adds, “and once the risk is heightened in an area, industry partners look for any changes in animal behavior to increase the monitoring and testing—whether that’s decreased water intake, lack of appetite, etc.”

One only needs to look back seven years to 2015 to see how significant a problem the bird flu can be. A large spread of the virus resulted in the culling of 50 million birds across 15 states, with a cost of almost $1 billion to the federal government. “Since the 2015 outbreak, APHIS has been very purposeful about the preventive measures they take in seeking out and testing wild flocks in high-risk areas,” Dr. Beauchamp says. “This is an event that, in some cases, is expected, so being prepared is key,” adding that the learnings from the 2015 outbreak have helped the industry to be better prepared.

The 2015 outbreak also caused prices for eggs and turkey to increase substantially, with eggs costing up to 61% more and boneless, skinless turkey breasts increasing as much as 75%.

At the current frequency and scale, Dr. Beauchamp notes that these bird flu confirmations won’t impact supply in a significant way that will impact cost, and that widespread shortages will likely not occur. However, she notes that the outbreak will put pressure on an industry that is already stressed due to worker shortages and supply chain challenges from the pandemic.

“There is a short replenishment cycle for birds, so even if there are flocks that have to be depopulated, producers can catch up more quickly,” she adds. “It would take extreme depopulation to impact the consumer and, from an industry standpoint, we do not expect to see the fallout we saw in 2015.” She adds that producers that have prepared their systems to be able to identify and confirm cases quickly, depopulate as needed, and move on will have limited hurdles compared with those who are not prepared from a biosecurity standpoint.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted that these new HPAI detections currently do not present an immediate public health concern as no human cases of the avian influenza viruses have been detected in the U.S.

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Earlier this month, the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic H7N3 avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial turkey flock in Chesterfield County, South Carolina. At press time, no new detections had been found since April 8. The outbreak was the first confirmed case of HPAI in commercial poultry in the United States since 2017.

“There was increased mortality in the flock, so samples were taken from several birds,” says Michael Stepien, BS, public affairs specialist for USDA APHIS in Riverdale, Md. “When birds on a premise test positive for HPAI, all of them must be depopulated to stop the virus’ further spread.”

Initially, APHIS found low pathogenicity avian influenza infections in 12 premises. Then, the low-path virus mutated and became a highly pathogenic strain which infected an additional premise. To ensure the safety of birds across the country, state officials quarantined the affected premises and approximately 346,012 birds were depopulated from all 13 premises, Stepien says.

At press time, APHIS had completed its surveillance of the area. No new human cases of H7N3 virus had been detected and there wasn’t any public health concern. “Birds from the affected flocks did not enter the food supply, and there is no safety concern at this time,” Stepien says.

The organization stressed, however, that it was important for both commercial and backyard poultry owners to be vigilant with their biosecurity practices to ensure they prevent the spread of avian influenza, Stepien says.

In commenting on the outbreak, Beth Breeding, vice president of communications and marketing for the National Turkey Federation in Washington, D.C., says the organization’s biggest concern was animal health and making sure the situation was contained to prevent other flocks from being impacted. “The joint actions by state and federal officials, as well as the grower and integrator, to quickly address the situation gave us the best possible chance of limiting its impact,” she says.

In a statement regarding the outbreak, Joel Brandenberger, president of the National Turkey Federation, stated, “Thorough disinfecting and cleaning procedures were initiated on premises as well as surveillance of commercial flocks in the surrounding area.”

Breeding believes that USDA and everyone else involved handled the case correctly. “APHIS officials and animal health officials in South Carolina responded quickly and appropriately to identify the problem, depopulate the flock, and monitor nearby flocks,” she says.

“This case is a textbook example of the effectiveness and importance of continuous monitoring to quickly identify and mitigate any potential animal disease issues,” Breeding continues. “Additionally, it highlights the work APHIS has done to implement a strong response plan to these types of cases.”

Concludes Breeding, “The public can continue to have complete confidence that the poultry industry is working hard to ensure that safe, nutritious products are available to consumers.”

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